Throwing Spaghetti (Westerns) at the Wall to See What Sticks.
10th July 2012 · 0 Comments
by Zaq Tull
In 2009, when the L’Aquila
earthquake struck Italy, I was taking a statistical modeling class that
focused on predicting natural disaster.
It was midway through the semester, so we knew that tsunamis could be
predicted with some accuracy, but that there was no reliable way to predict
earthquakes. That day, our professor
delivered a surprising lecture on Giampaolo
Giuliani, an Italian scientist who had in fact predicted that L’Aquila would devistate Italy.
earthquake struck Italy, I was taking a statistical modeling class that
focused on predicting natural disaster.
It was midway through the semester, so we knew that tsunamis could be
predicted with some accuracy, but that there was no reliable way to predict
earthquakes. That day, our professor
delivered a surprising lecture on Giampaolo
Giuliani, an Italian scientist who had in fact predicted that L’Aquila would devistate Italy.
Giuliani went on television, and gave Italy an entire month
to prepare for the quake. The public
called him an alarmist. It’s a really
sad story.
to prepare for the quake. The public
called him an alarmist. It’s a really
sad story.
Well kind of.
Because according to our professor, who had all the juicy
scientific community gossip, Giampalo Giuliani was an alarmist. He had predicted something like 20 straight
earthquakes that never produced so much as a tremble; classic story of the boy
who cried wolf.
scientific community gossip, Giampalo Giuliani was an alarmist. He had predicted something like 20 straight
earthquakes that never produced so much as a tremble; classic story of the boy
who cried wolf.
Is this any way to do business?
I didn’t think so, but I was reminded of the earthquake story
after reading this
article, a profile of film industry finances by The New York Times and
Planet Money. It seems like Hollywood is
very good at managing its operations, but in terms of a business plan, they are
just getting cash from investors, and throwing the money at projects that
they think will be hits.
after reading this
article, a profile of film industry finances by The New York Times and
Planet Money. It seems like Hollywood is
very good at managing its operations, but in terms of a business plan, they are
just getting cash from investors, and throwing the money at projects that
they think will be hits.
Because it’s been harder to find financiers and audiences
during the recession, movie studios have been attempting to eliminate risk by
spending more money, and producing fewer films.
Many of the story lines in these movies are based on existing intellectual property.
during the recession, movie studios have been attempting to eliminate risk by
spending more money, and producing fewer films.
Many of the story lines in these movies are based on existing intellectual property.
This is great, except how are you to tell if a sequel has
the potential to bust blocks?
the potential to bust blocks?
Business owners, chime in! How does Hollywood fix its business plan? Tell us on Facebook.
Tags: business, business plan, business planning, facebook, family, fire, italian, italy, management, opinion, the alternative board
